August 21, 2011

Forex Chart Analysis - Analysis of forex EUR/USD 1 hr chart

Forex EUR/USD chart is showing good indications of moving down over next few days. It can go down and once again test 1.4100 0r 1.4000 levels like it has done multiple times in last few weeks.

Let us take a look at the 1 hr EUR/USD chart -

 

Forex EUR USD 1 hr chart analysis

1. The hand driven line "A" shows the Head and Shoulder pattern. The high "2" is higher than high "1" and "3". In an ideal head and shoulder pattern the high 1 should be higher than high 3, which is happening in this scenario.

2. The Green line "B" shows the neck line.

3. The MACD as shown in Area "E" shows divergance, as in High 2 in head and shoulder is higher than High 1, but the corresponding highs in MACD are opposite (that is, MACD high corresponding to high 2 is lwer than MACD high corresponding to High 1).

So, these are all clear indications that the market may go bearish for next few days.

So, how to take advantage of this setup?

What a trader can do is wait for the market to price to break the "B" neck line. Once the neck line is broken, the expected support is at the line "D".

So, the trader can place a short trade as soon as the neckline B is broken with Profit target at line D. So this will be about 150 pips of profit. The stop loss can be placed above line "F" which indicates sort of mini resistance.

So, by risking about 50 pips, a profit of 100+ pips can be expected. Not bad..right?

If you like this post, can you do me a favour? Can you please add it to your facebook page or tweet it or digg it?

Disclaimer - The analysis is just for educational purposes
and is not a trading advice. Please place the trades by doing
analysis at your end.

 

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8 Comments on Forex Chart Analysis - Analysis of forex EUR/USD 1 hr chart »

August 21, 2011

idi @ 7:46 pm:

i like,this help me nice rahul.

thanks

Ken Long @ 9:32 pm:

This is an interesting analysis. It differs from what I would say.

The green line while a good support line is not the neckline. The neckline would be a declining trendline connecting the two sides of the neck, which would bring us down to the rising trendline of the past few months.

On the Daily time frame a clear parallel chanel is visable with the head of this pattern breaking out to the upside. The rising trend of the past few months and the upper channel line create a clear triangle. Any move below the green support line would be contained within this consolidating triangle.

It seems the better move would be to wait for either the true neckline and the rising trend line to be simultaneously broken to the downside, or the parallel chanel to be broken and retested on the upside. This is more of a long term move, but once it confirms in either direction there will be trades within it.

For a shorter term move I would favor a break below the dotted blue line on your chart to the green line, for about 100 pips with a 35 pip stop. I'm a little concerned for the resistance in the area of line F, but I think this move is possible. From there I would wait to see how it reacted with the various trend and support lines coming together in this area. Either a break down as you predicted, or a bounce back up. I will set up for the trade I called and watch for your trade to confirm.

Ken @ 10:56 pm:

Great call if that is all you look at, But If you add the 100ema & the 50ema, you will see that the 50ema has crossed over to the positive side of the 100ema. Then add in the STOCH and you see it below 20 which is in oversold area.
To add all this now look at 4hr and see a large uptrend is in the works.
Like you say,People do your own D.D. before any trade.

Ken @ 11:49 pm:

Just in case anyone wants to track my call, Here is my buy
My call is 1.4558 with stop/loss @ 1.4253
Price on your chart 1.4367 ( I got in a buy @ 1.4316)But we will use your entry of 1.4367
Buy Stop/Target
Risk 1.4367 - 1.4253 = 114 pips —- my trade 1.4316 - 1.4253 = 63 pips risk
Reward 1.4558 - 1.4367 = 191 pips —- " "" 1.4558 - 1.4316 = 242 pips reward

And yes I know if you look at the Monthly chart it is in a down trend. That's why you should only use max 3 time frames, the one your watching, 1 time lower (for entry) 1 time higher ( for Target)
This is ONLY MY analysis.

Disclaimer - The analysis is just for educational purposes
and is not a trading advice. Please place the trades by doing
analysis at your end.

August 22, 2011

jan @ 2:23 am:

Thank you Rahul, I have found your e-mails to be very helpful.

Ray @ 1:38 pm:

Thanks Rahul, I want to try forex but don't know where to start. Thanks for your chart analysis very helpful. Please help me. Sincerely Ray

August 27, 2011

Madueke @ 6:53 pm:

Hello,
glad to come here. well am looking for how to make money in forex right away.

February 12, 2012

jamal jber @ 1:20 am:

hi
thanks a lot so nice job you do

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