February 28, 2011

Forex Chart Analysis - An example of EUR/USD trade

Some of you my subscribers have asked me an example of how to analyse the forex charts correctly.

When you are analysing chart from a trade perspective, you must look from 2-3 important aspects

1. Where is a good point to Enter the market

2. From the entry point, what is the immediate price point you see the
currency pair reaching, that can be your immediate exit point

3. Where should you place your stop loss

Once you have these three pieces identified, what left is just placing the trade.

Let us take a look at an example -

In the chart above, we are looking at EUR/USD 1 hr chart

1. As you can see market is in a bullish trend.
2. The market, in the trend, retraces and forms a low at Red Elipse (A)
3. It then resumes the uptrend again followed by again a retracement.

If you look at 2nd retracement, the elipse B, it is formed at 38.2% Fib level. Also, this point is also forms a double bottom since the low at Elipse A
is also at the same level.

So, definitely, this looks to be a strong support area.

So, the probability of market bouncing off from this support area is very high.

So, in elipse B, The 1st candle (red breaches the 38.2 level, but the next candle (Blue candle) pulls back and shows that the retracement level holds good.

What this level of analysis done, let us look at the 3 aspects we covered at the beginning of this post -

1. The entry point for the Forex Trade- Ofcourse it is when the market bounces off from 38.2 fib level. But the entry should only be done when it is confirmed that currency pair has bounced off..which is at the CLOSE of Blue Candle

2. The immediate target - The level C as shown by a green line. This is the immediate target. If currency pair still shows enough strength, then continue to keep the trade open

3. The stop loss - Could have been placed below 50% fib level. A more conservative approach could have been to have it below the 61.8 level. But that wouldn't have been
good from Risk Reward ratio perspective

See folks, you don't have to use any complex systems to analyse the market. All you need is 2-3 good forex indicators.

In the above analysis, we just used Support/Resistance lines (Fibonacci levels and double bottom/top levels) and Candlestick.

Ideally I would have recommended you to use another confirming indicatort like RSI/MACD etc. But, to keep things easy to understand, I just included S/R and
Candlesticks.

Let me know your comments about this post

Oh, by the way, if you are interested in learning Forex Candlesticks to become even better trader, then check out -

Forex Candlestick Magic


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6 Comments on Forex Chart Analysis - An example of EUR/USD trade »

February 28, 2011

EP @ 2:04 am:

great stuff!at least have an idea how the pro analyses the charts.
welcome more of these

Edward R. @ 2:38 am:

Thanks for taking the time to show us your logic on taking a trade. I've been doing forex about 15 months. Just now starting to make some money. I use price action and a couple indicators. Now I get about 50 % of my trades right, with tight money management. Making a little money on micro lots. Soon I will step up to mini lots. Again, Thanks. Have a good day.

David Askew @ 3:20 am:

a good bit of information for the novice trader easy and simple to understand
regards
Dave

ana @ 8:29 am:

Hi, Good Morning Mr. Rahul!!!
Blog seems to me amazing.
It is the first time I see that it and everything is simple, clearly and with visual examples. Hopefully blog conserves these elements in his.
What it does not mention you are the values that it recommends for indicator RSI/MACD. Hopefully could help with this and an explanation us of how to use it
Thank you

March 1, 2011

Peter @ 9:12 am:

The original chart attached to the emails did not show positions "C" or "D" which was a bit frustrating.
The revised chart above is an improvement and makes everything perfectly clear.
It is worth noting that the retracement low at point "B" does not take out the previous low at point "A".
The very last candle ( blue) does take out the previous high of the blue candle 11 hours to the left. Thus we are buying on the background of a "higher low and higher high whish all tends to confirm the probable continuation of the bull trend.
I concur with the author`s minimal indicator usage so as not to distract attention from price action which is paramount.

Bassey Gideon @ 9:28 am:

Dear Rahul,
Thanks for your analysis. It is helpful and rewarding.
I am having some difficulties analyzing the market correctly
and accurately.Some findings shows that i am unable to combine
fundamental and technical analysis together for a final decision.
Please i need your support on:
1. HOW TO READ FIBONACCI.
2. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
3. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS and
4. NEWS.

Thanks.

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